We can finally forecast a cold winter ! Get your mad cards and get your ski’s ready, I expect a fun winter ! So lets get to it. Home ImprovementWhy wont my gas barbeque get hot enough to cook? So enjoy this pattern while you can. This winter much like last features a equatorial Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperatures are average, thus yielding an ENSO close to neutral (a positive SST anomaly yields an El Nino while a negative yields a La Nina). Amazing, but a day that looked very much like a very mild day, now could at least partially turn into a powder day. We should see at least something in the range of normal. The state of the ENSO however is not BS part of a long range forecast, particularly a winter forecast. There is a relationship the PDO has with the ENSO. The colder than average temperatures will result from what I think will be a few nasty periods of bitterly cold temperatures but the aforementioned PDO will still allow for some variability and the occasional thaw, even a damaging one. The arctic actually saw a more abbreviated retreat of ice in the arctic regions verses the last few years (although it was still well below the 30 year average).

The Hudson Bay in particular is about 20 percent iced over as of November 21st, which would be the largest show of ice this early in about 10 years. The winter of 1993-1994 comes to mind as I have watched the current month of November play out. FLORIDA GATORS (-26½) over Vanderbilt Commodores: The Gators have played the country’s toughest schedule over the past month. But with the current month of November already providing some biting intrusions of cold weather and frequent dustings of high elevation snow, it seems even the cynics want to play with the hype machine. All winter seasons seem to consist of some hype. The winter of 2008-2009 featured the last chilly November and big start to a season. The expansion through October and into November has been, shall I say, awesome. Once the final numbers for November are tallied, the October/November snow and ice cover in our hemisphere will rival the 2nd highest total in 40 years of recorded data. It is my belief that the expansion of ice and snow is an important early season feedback.

A larger area of snow and ice cover creates a larger breeding ground for arctic cold and it is arctic cold and often the strength of this arctic cold that can often times make or break a winter. We have seen an early taste of exactly that early this season with continuous invasions of arctic chill even when some of the teleconnection indices have argued against it. For online tickets booked on irctc, your 10 digit PNR number is there in the top row – just beside the transaction id as can be seen in the below image. There is the possibility it will freeze, which will leave you with a very expensive neck adornment. For the record I will say 1-3 degrees below normal on temperatures and 260-280 inches of snow (which is just to the above side of normal). SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. If it isn’t coming from yours truly, I am sure it would take a rather effortless scouring of the internet to find someone else that is all juiced up about the upcoming snow season.

With that time now approaching, the 10th season of SCWB begins (crazy that it’s been that long). With snow-capped General Stark, I know it seems like the blog is getting a late start, but I try to keep updates within the confines of the MRG ski season which typically begins a bit later than some close rivals. It has the tendency to become very territorial, and it could treat strangers and some of your friends that it doesn’t know as hostile enemies. It is presumed that because there are no predictions beyond the December 21, 2012, date, the world as we know it must end. It must be installed close to the base station and the distance has to be measured correctly in order that the thermometer can function well without interferences. You really need to make this journey into the future in order to assess the extent of the damage done.