In fact, scientists use predictions as part of their hypothesis, or question they try to answer through their experiments. This ought to lead to some more active weather as the two opposing factors (ridge and low pressure system) fight each other and try to get to Alaska, which appears to be the place to be. When a front moves through, it is two air masses colliding. The first week or two of being away from the blog gave me a break unlike that I had experienced over the last several years. It is a low pressure system that sits in the Gulf of Alaska and typically makes for warmer weather over the US. That is a form of the Alaska Vortex. What this could easily do is manipulate the polar jet stream to throw some systems from the big vortex out east into the West US, which is likely why we are seeing the darker blue colors in west/central US.

Something I look to for support in forecasting is the Alaskan Vortex. I expect we see this deep negative forecast moderate to more neutral territory, as the MJO does not really support such a huge -PNA event. Mountain weather, however, can make an enjoyable adventure not so fun when you’re unprepared (we’ve experienced this firsthand more times than we’d like to admit). Check out how there is a ridge (orange) stretched out into Alaska trying to make a move. However, notice the darker blue colors in west Alaska. See the dark blue on the upper left hand corner of the image? This low pressure system will see the ridge and beat it down, and I expect this pattern to go on for a while, where a ridge tries to move north but the low pressure system beats it down. Actually I see the opposite going on now. The actions of people and the decisions we make now — to modify the land surface, to alter the atmosphere — have repercussions for the present and future.

The ESRL is showing a strong ridge to be present in much of the Pacific for the 6-10 day timeframe, which is what this image is for. UK is known for erratic atmosphere, wherein you can experience sudden spells of rain or a snowfall on a seemingly sunny day. In the case of Jamaica, the worst month for rain historically is October. When ants build nests on top of fence posts or old stumps, rain is imminent. NEAR OLD ST CHARLES ROCK ROAD AND HARMON ESTATES. The acclaimed sun-moon general guideline is an old idea in such manner. Based on a card, we can make some vague prediction and suggest the listener to use interpretation when hearing it. All F-Chart programs use the equations from Duffie and Beckman. Then, you’ll have to inspect plastic pipes to determine if there’re any frozen water clogs in them. Then, a few days ago, someone told me that perhaps that burning desire had come about because I had stopped blogging. I’ve already wrapped up my tornado research, so I’ve had to resort to long hours staring at my computer, never really getting much done, but still feeling that burning desire to actually accomplish something.

Moisture has been increasing slowly but the sounding still does not have CAPE. The light winds and CAPE in that sounding indicate a clear threat for flash floods. In contrast, TWC has a considerably less moist sounding with a deep residual boundary layer that extends almost to 500 mb. Fourth – compare the TWC and ELP soundings this morning. The moist plume around the anticyclone has ELP in a deep, moist and unstable airmass. However, the ECMWF continues to keep the anticyclone further east, allowing a moist flow to continue over the Southwest for a week or so. Third – the NWS models bring the Pacific, middle-latitude cutoff across the Great Basin, allowing the massive, middle-level anticyclone over the Plains to back westward over Arizona and new Mexico. Although, it’s in pretty close proximity to the city, it’s got a great Country/Prairie setting. The average gardener doesn’t have the time to do this of course, so once a week becomes a great way to plan your rose bush feeding, using a mix of organic and chemical. Even though your pickup may be garaged, it doesn’t like the freezing weather any more than we do.