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This enhancement of the AAM comes along from April into the end of May, so that could be the time when we see some good severe weather in the nation. If we continue to see above normal snow cover in Canada going into April and May, I find it very plausible that the temperature gradient between the South and North US will be increased. This comes as a result of that snow cover in Canada allowing cold air to flow south and above normal Gulf of Mexico temperatures providing a base for above normal temperatures and moisture in the South. As we look up towards North America, we see above normal heights in the North Pacific towards (but not in) the Gulf of Alaska. Now, if you were to look even closer, you would see that the highest AAM anomalies are more centered towards that 30N-40N region. The point is, if (keyword is if) this swath of warm air is able to blossom into the Arctic, you can expect a more amplified severe weather season than even I may be predicting. As it is, we are likely to see a run on some of the banks, including at least one or two majors (probably Citigroup and Wells Fargo).

If we take a look towards January, we see a very abrupt warming event take place throughout the heavy majority of the stratosphere. Another piece of the puzzle is the stratosphere. In the past week, this swath of above normal temperatures in the upper stratosphere (10mb) has really flared up and began to move north and east towards the Bering Sea and then into the Arctic. At this point in time, I’m remaining optimistic that this warm mass will propagate into the Arctic Circle and initiate a full-blown sudden stratospheric warming. This track is very typical of sudden stratospheric warmings, I see little reason to argue why the warm mass of air would not do this. That’s not to say we won’t see a resurgence in summer-like temperatures down the road, but for the near-term, it’s looking less likely. We are looking for one and want to get the most for our money. We are also looking at the drought for this severe weather season. Now that we’ve examined the past and present, let’s go to the future and see what forecasts say for this severe weather season.

If we see this negative QBO stay through the Spring, (which I’m hesitant to believe) cold weather hitting the US would be more likely than without the negative QBO. If we look towards the latitudes, we see that the outlined portion falls between the 30N and 60N lines, which covers territory from the Mexico/US border to the midsection of Canada. If fans are interested in European sports, they will look to discover the best Avrupa Bahis sites which offer the contests. The negative height anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and West Coast in general in the analog package are reciprocated in this model’s forecast, shown by the light blue contour on the west coast of North America. As we discussed in the analog package section, reds show above normal heights (high pressure) while blues show below normal height anomalies, which signifies low pressure. Again, my analogs showed this, and this will divert the storm track and active subtropical jet stream north through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (also shown in the first analog image).

If the warm air mass does get into the Arctic, we can expect an even more active spring. The mass of warm air over the Arctic will result in high pressure winning its spot in that same domain, resulting in a pattern that favors cold air masses taking a shot at the United States. However, as the last few frames will show you, the warm air mass has stagnated and flattened out on the northern edge, kind of retrograding back west into Europe. After 20 inch of snow last night I would much rather be there. If you are intending taking a last minute vacation and you are thinking about camping, the weather should play a huge role in your decision. Being one step ahead or even thinking like a criminal is important for all criminologists and policemen. This is a forecast from one of the long range forecast models in the Climate Prediction Center, showing 500 millibar height anomalies. As you can see, strong warming has developed in the Himalayan Mountain Range over the past few weeks. The bottom part of the image shows the predicted AAM values from 4 separate CFS (the long range American model) ensembles. The image above shows the predicted AAM anomalies on top, with latitudes shown on the left side of the image.

The image above shows forecasted 500mb vorticity values with superimposed 500mb height contours over Japan for November 26th, off the GFS model. Shown above are temperature anomalies in Celsius over the January-February-March 2013 period. As we know, a temperature gradient is necessary for severe weather to form. Shown above is an animation of temperature anomalies at the 10 millibar level. I outlined a section of slightly above normal AAM anomalies in the top half of this image to show that the jet stream could be enhanced here. The negative QBO, or Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, involves wind anomalies in the stratosphere. The stratosphere is also something to watch at this moment. In a positive AAM, the jet stream can be enhanced, and a negative AAM can show a weakened jet stream. This fits in nicely with my analogs, which show that high pressure area in the lefthand corner of the image. This warming event was a prolonged event with prolonged effects that continued to propagate down to the surface until mid February, as the yellows show in the above image.