We also see an elongated positive height anomaly swath across eastern Canada, Greenland and into northwest Europe. This then leads to colder than normal temperatures flowing southeast from western Canada, spreading across the Plains, Midwest and even towards the Gulf Coast. Surface low with strength of approximately 992 millibars in south-central Nebraska by 00z 3/08 will enhance moist airmass fetch from the Gulf of Mexico, tracing surface and 850-millibar wind fields back to the Galveston, Texas to Mobile, Louisiana region. Surface dewpoint projection from the 18z GFS show values nearing 60 degrees Fahrenheit by 12z Tuesday, although 00z Tuesday values see a lower, but still impressive swath of dewpoint numbers AOA 55 degrees. GFS suite has taken a more aggressive tone in this event since a particularly bullish 00z run on 3/04, which triggered a potentially tornadic environment signal for a good portion of Oklahoma for this Monday night event. Storm Prediction Center currently outlooks western Oklahoma into central Kansas and eastern Nebraska, as well as much of central Texas for a 15% chance of severe weather on the long range Day 4-8 outlook for this event.

500-millibar jet streak AOA 60 knots will form by 18z 3/07 over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Kansas as the shortwave moves into the Plains. March for Science. There will be a lot of well-meaning folks participating, most of them concerned about the activities and intent of the current administration. However, now that there are multiple high pressure systems, there are next to no cracks for the system to break through and move north. This is a very good sign for the chances of stratospheric warming events, which, if the atmospheric pattern is right, can allow for frigid air to move into North America. Multiple forecasts have been indicative of this positive height anomaly presence in the North Pacific, and the CA model’s projection of this factor only aids in its credibility. I’ve been seeing more and more evidence that such a winter may be unfolding in just a few months, and this new model projection only increases my confidence.

The only difference between the two is that the climate model is fitted for only a few specific parameters, and it goes out several decades. Highest concern from most recent model runs rests with western Oklahoma, particularly along a corridor of Eldorado to Comanche, to Buffalo to Medford. It is this corridor that should see the best forcing for thunderstorms, and will likely have the best threat for tornadic thunderstorms. In terms of tornado potential- lowering LCLs as convection approaches, combined with sufficient instability and SRH / shear lead me to believe this event will pose the first notable threat for rotating thunderstorms this spring season. Winter Season is The Season of Interior Home Painting! There are many ways to protect your home from harsh conditions of winter precipitation. The method was applied to bovine ribonuclease, the B‐subunit of cholera toxin and herpes simplex virus type 1 glycoprotein D. There was a good correlation between the predicted regions and previously determined antigenic regions.

Depends on the required task, the number of units, the kind of unit, the type of networks are decided and constructed. When these bodies change their position and move from one place to another, these things are translated into concrete events. The GCC pounced. It attacked Benjamin Santer, one of the report’s lead American authors, falsely accusing him of misleading the public by concealing scientific uncertainty. Further east, in the Oklahoma City / Norman region, severe thunderstorms will still be possible, albeit higher uncertainty is present with potential capping and forcing concerns. Will re-evaluate this portion of the state in the next discussion to try and clear up this uncertainty, should successive model runs follow suit. Another weather model has joined the ranks of those predicting a colder than normal winter across a rather large portion of the country in coming months. Chuck’s statement above alludes to the ongoing demise of human forecasters’ skills in synoptic weather analysis and forecasting. That does not eliminate the error potential that regular forecasting models have. The result is the potential for flash flooding and slides, with debris-laden regions that have recently burned of particularly concern.

The audio feed is provided by volunteers, who themselves have real scanners. Len Snellman (who was then head of the Scientific Services Division of the NWS Western Region) wrote in the October 1977 issue of BAMS (Vol. Now, 850mb winds are pretty light in the outlined region above, which would not necessarily suggest a good severe weather event. Potential severe weather event will become set up with the strong shortwave moving into western Kansas, attaining what will pass as a negative tilt in the process. It is unknown what exact effects this will have on weather, but the idea of a general cool down appears likely. This cycle, known as Cycle 24, appears to be the last solar cycle before we dip into an extended solar hibernation, during which the Earth may very well cool. If this were run on a regular model, you might as well trash that model.