This swath of waters is called a Kelvin Wave (you can learn more about the Kelvin Wave by reading these two posts: Post 1 and Post 2), and is known as a kick-starter to an El Nino event. An El Nino is one of two phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (the other phase is a La Nina), also called the ENSO phenomenon. In an El Nino (La Nina), we see warmer (cooler) than normal temperatures placed in the waters along the Equator, west of Ecuador. Looking over there now, we see widespread below normal water temperatures, with a few swaths of above normal water temperatures along the Ecuador. We’ll begin by looking at the temperature anomalies over the eastern Pacific, offshore of Ecuador. One of a great site feature is our daily betting tips / prediction system developed over many years. As this disturbance moves into the Northern Plains, wind shearing looks to develop across much of the Great Lakes. We will discuss the temperature anomalies over the Northeast Pacific, anomalies over the eastern Pacific, and anomalies in the northern Atlantic. We see a solid negative NAO over Greenland, shown by high pressure in that region. The City of Moroleon, Guanajuato is very pedestrian friendly and the weather is consistently over seventy degrees.

Hello everyone, this is the 2014 Severe Weather Season Outlook, made by The Weather Centre. After hibernation, breeding season begins. In simpler terms, this shows you temperature anomalies underwater, just below the Equator, if you were to look at the water from the surface down to about 450 meters. If we look at this animation, we find an enormous swath of anomalously warm waters about 100 to 200 meters under the surface, moving towards the surface. Meteorologists tell us that right now, some 1800 thunderstorms are taking place around the globe and they produce approximately 100 lightening strikes per second (8 million or so each day). Closed lows are notorious for staying in place for days on end, but this does not look like it will happen. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. There is a very outside chance of a tornado, but wind and hail are main threats.

Scientists are beginning to say yes. Despite the input of 9 models and ensembles, only a select few are worth making note of. Some of the models generate a new tropical storm with the wave, well south of the GoC. There are two forms of data analysis that can be used for extracting models describing important classes or to predict future data trends. Usually, these types of systems are reserved for the Bering Sea, but this is the one we’re watching to hit potentially a very large swath of the nation with intense accumulating snow. Here is the New York Times snow total map to see more details. The point is that I expect to see a lot more chances for snow and severe weather in the next half of February. This would lead to excellent chances for storms on Sunday and the Fourth of July across southern Arizona. The 84-hour, NAM 700 mb forecast valid at 0000 UTC on Saturday July 2nd is shown above.

Regardless, this wave moving into and across the GoC, with associated thunderstorm complexes, should generate a substantial surge of GoC low-level moisture into southern Arizona, probably on Saturday. Another low pressure with an associated trof is stationed on the Montana/Wyoming border. This comes as a low pressure system is stationed in the southeast portion of Colorado, with a trof into New Mexico and Arizona. Looking at our current weather around the nation, we have a stationary front in the Southeast producing strong to severe showers and thunderstorms. Rain is ongoing in southeast Michigan, and again that linear storm threat appears with the states of Kentucky and Tennessee. I mentioned this wave in the post of June 24th as a possible player in the Holiday weekend’s weather, and that still appears to be a distinct possibility. Want to give yourself the best possible chance of placing a winning bet? The point I am getting across with the line is just the possible areas affected by this train of storms. The line that I have marked is not necessarily the jet stream, as I anticipate it to be more southerly than the line.