Plot above shows the Catalina Mountains sector of the network, with high amounts extending from near the crest northward into Pinal County. The IR satellite image (below) shows both systems this morning (Monday, June 30th) as well as MCS activity along east side of GoC extending about half way up the Gulf. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for much of Illinois, nearly all of Indiana and the western half of Ohio in anticipation of a potentially significant weather event tomorrow. The likelihood for a derecho is on the rise tomorrow, as new model data and an upgrade from the Storm Prediction Center launch Wednesday into a significant weather event status. The main rain shield has already been torn off of the system, and it is very possible that the exposed center of circulation could bring Debby down to a tropical depression before landfall happens.

Tucson is down in the dirty air in the distance (photo is looking south with the downtown buildings just showing in the murk). Pattern should quiet down over Thanksgiving, with tropical forcing moving into areas more favorable for warmer weather for much of the country into the opening 5-10 days of December. A significant winter storm is forecasted to hit a large portion of the country in the December 26-29 timeframe. We see our storm now well developed and centered in far northern Mexico, beginning to push eastward into the southern Plains. The MCS near the far south end of Sonora was most intense around 04 UTC last evening as per image below. Late in the day yesterday Tucson finally got a bit of sun before dark – above image is from 6 pm. These would be serious thunderstorms judging by shear, instability and precipitation as seen above. Over the last seven days, we’ve seen strong negative geopotential height anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska, leading to ridging in Canada and a warmer pattern here in the U.S.

The Dodgers have won seven consecutive National League West Titles and have lost two consecutive World Series to the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox. We also see an upper level low in the Bering Sea, which is expected to contribute some energy to our pattern over the next week or two. If so, the two formulas should NOT be mixed but one of them selected and used consistently. So, no need to stay skeptical about buying one due to worries that it won’t work in the extreme temperatures, as there are many alternatives to combat with these issues. Tropical forcing indicates we may need to monitor for a significant storm system not unlike the one currently moving into Canada, which brought tornadoes and heavy snow to the Central US this past week. Specifically, the atmospheric instability caused by the heat of the day that gives rise to tornadoes in the late afternoon to tend remain after dark in this region.

This event has seemed to be a magnet for wintry weather, with the start of the last day delayed by snow either last year or year before. Latest reasoning from the SPC cites abundant and high instability in the highlighted areas, as well as high moisture content in the lower levels of the atmosphere as supportive for a significant damaging wind event. On April 15, 2012, we had a severe weather event associated with a strong low pressure system, as seen below. The long range forecast models bring the spell of nice weather to an end during the golf tournament. However, the professional golfers will be in town next week for their unusual match-play tournament. The question is whether NOAA/NWS leadership will take the right path. It is this that completes my belief that the storm will take this more eastern track and give cities like Oklahoma City, perhaps Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, and much of the Northeast a solid snow after Christmas.

Early analysis of pattern around Christmas does favor another round of stormy and cooler weather in time for the holidays. The lengths of time between occurrences of Poisson-distributed processes are described by the exponential distribution. Regardless of where or how they are grown – they will grow, and more beautifully than ever. Your removalist company will either send someone to survey your property or provide estimates based on the information you have filled. Use of tools such as crop simulation models for investigation of potential impacts of climatic change requires daily data pertaining to small spatial scales, not the monthly-averaged and large-scale information typically available from the GCMs. As for the GFS, it too forecasts substantial change next week. This morning’s early WRF-NAM forecasts indicate that the weather situation over southeast Arizona will be quite complicated by Wednesday afternoon – forecast of PW below on 5.4 km grid is valid at 5 pm Wednesday. You are controlled by some unseen force into every situation that ever happens, your mind is not free to decide, to create, to manifest the desires of your heart.