New England and Mad River Glen. And I finally joined the Mad River Glen facebook group as the 557th member. As of Sunday, Mad River Glen was on the fringe of a developing coastal system impacting much of New England. Developing countries see it as essential. It’s quite possible we see a sustained warm period from March 2nd to the 8th, if these ridges hold together. The period Sunday through Wednesday will be wintry as the return to colder weather this upcoming weekend will get reenforced early next week by a temporary re-positioning of the ridge/trough set up in North America. This again being the result of the adverse teleconnections; in this case, a PNA which will turn very negative by March 4th or 6th and stay that way for a period of at least 5 days. A good way to do so is to ensure the lorry itself is equipped for every eventuality. Thursday will be a good day to ski but the snow will soften as temperatures eclipse the freezing mark under a mix of warm late-February sun and some increasing clouds.

It’s a good idea to have some cushions in there, and blankets as well, to protect in case of debris flying around. The general idea of the longer range is high pressure will continue to hold its ground over Greenland. It also looks like we will be seeing a more active Pacific Jet Stream in the longer range, something that could add energy to the storm potential (winter weather and severe weather), especially in the Northeast. Shown above is an ECMWF forecast for the evening of March 5th, depicting 500mb height anomalies over the North Pacific. Much of the country has been in the grip of a serious chilly start to winter, with temperature anomalies well below normal in many parts of the country. This past winter, I continued to press the issue of how snow cover over Siberia in October could affect temperature anomalies in the following winter. Looking towards mid October, we see a moderation in snow cover anomalies over the northern Hemisphere.

Shown above is a forecasted image from the European ensemble system, projecting 850 millibar temperature anomalies for 12 days from today. This would more than likely continue the streak of cold weather across the nation, and the European ensembles bring another cold blast into the same regions just under 2 weeks out. It will have to be altered to spread further north (just to cover some more of the Plains, that’s all), but I want to see another round of model forecasts before I make a serious change. December 2012 brought above normal temperatures to the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes, among other regions. California and portions of Nevada also got in on these below normal temperatures. The cold weather will hit late in the day Saturday and Sunday could be another where temperatures are in the -20 vicinity in the morning and struggle to zero during the afternoon. It may only amount to a light additional accumulation but it should freshen the trails up somewhat and with the relatively moderate temperatures and light winds it should be a solid ski day.

The later part of next week however is likely to see a re-emergence of warmer temperatures and perhaps another rain event. While warmer sea surface temperatures indicate this could happen, the general trend this year is for tropical systems to not strengthen when they are supposed to. In this image, valid September 13th, we see a strong upper level low placed over the eastern Bering Sea. Chicago and Des Moines will really be ‘game-time decisions’, as upper air thermal profiles are still a little murky and will ultimately determine how much liquid and snow falls over these cities. At the very least we should see snow from a “clipper” or a “mauler”, or “bomber” and this will provide at least one powder day. Then always one cannot possibly prepare for all kinds of infection. One can easily find a San Francisco travel maps from internet, download it and get it in printed form.