You can tighten the nuts easily as needed while you are at it to prevent loss of battery power when you need it the most. Some use birthday’s while others use numbers that are lucky to them. However, there are statistics that back the supercell map. The 18z NAM Supercell Composite map. The NAM has been very consistent over the last several runs. Shown below is a side-by-side comparison of the last few days of January 500mb geopotential height anomalies (left), as well as typical 500mb height anomalies during a January Phase 6 MJO event, in an ENSO atmosphere reflective of this one. Model guidance is expecting the atmosphere as a whole to dive into a La Nina-esque pattern, which is shown like the image below. Total rainfall forecast through 11 pm on Saturday night is shown below – amounts are mostly light but a few spots are forecast to receive from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch – the light green areas. If you are in western Oregon, your chances to see the eclipse are very poor.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). SURFACE LOW NEAR COU WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY 20/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED. TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEN EGG SIZED HAIL. Cooler than normal weather is expected in the final days of January, possibly into February. There is increasing potential for a warming trend in the middle of February back to above-normal temperatures.

Going back to our MJO OLR composite image earlier in this post, we see this correlating to Phase 6, also known as the warm weather phase. During a typical La Nina pattern, we tend to see strong high pressure across the Gulf of Alaska, before the jet stream buckles south and delivers cold weather into the North Plains and Northwest. Ridging then is provoked in the East US (the reason why cold weather fans in the East see La Nina’s in their nightmares). So he tries to work with Count Infinity to see if he can find his place. Lush fabrics and high thread count sheets are still important. Dr Adam Morgan, a forecaster at the bureau said high temperatures were already marking the beginning of “an exceptional week that’s likely to break numerous December and all-time temperature records across the country. Normally after the first frost (about October), they will retreat to their burrow in the deepest part below the frost line where temperatures stay above freezing.

All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats around the Gulf should stay ashore. Let’s just say right off the bat that it is incredibly (if not impossible) hard to identify where supercells will strike. In summary, there is some concern over potential supercells in the red areas marked in the image above. Let’s show the map of concern. The hurricane page opens with a map of current sea surface temps and active storms. At the same time, there is a major negative against the map. Every season of the MLB or what is more commonly known as the Major League Baseball, expect that there will be a lot of predictions coming in. When it does, it could be “major”. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. If you bob up and down, its like riding a bike where the only exercise you get is on the down stroke and if you stand up and use your body weight it becomes almost effortless.

He has promised to “get Brexit done” by Jan. 31 if he wins a majority. MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. Likewise, the uncertainty from internal variability may be reduced, at least in the near-term projections, through initializing the model with the current state of the climate system. MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES. Here, we see our strong trough that we went over in the Saturday Outlook post has now become a closed low, as seen by the closed isobars in Kansas and Nebraska. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON BOTH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN MO AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AS REMAINING CAP IS REMOVED. On a side note, many have asked why I am using the MJO in my forecasts, since we are currently in the pro-warmth Phase 6, but cold weather is prevailing. This would not bode well for a cold and stormy end to winter for most east of the Rockies, unfortunately.