Find premium quality Toyota weatherstripping, Honda weatherstripping, Ford weatherstripping, Chevy weatherstripping and more from Auto Parts Wholesale. There is at once a number of factors that should be kept in view while you are in the process of selecting Kitchen cabinet handles – right from the quality up to the style. We propose an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with seasonal volatility to model the time dynamics of daily average temperatures. Both methods give larger than average amplitude to Cycle 24 while its delayed start and low minimum strongly suggest a much smaller cycle. If we use this rule on the model image above, a rather strong upper level low with the accompanying threat of some cold Arctic air may begin affecting the US around September 17-21st, within the six-to-ten day timeframe discussed above. In the image above, valid September 17th, we see a swath of negative height anomalies overtaking Japan as a rather strong upper level low scrapes the nation to the north.

In the image above, valid September 11th, we see a swath of negative height anomalies overtaking Japan as a rather strong upper level low scrapes the nation to the north. Similarly, if stormy weather is found in the Arctic landmass, the North Atlantic Oscillation is declared to be positive. Next, we’ll take a look at the close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because those Pacific teleconnections are upstream of the nation, they wield significant influence on the North American weather pattern. For one, the AO is based in the Arctic, and while the jet stream is influenced by the AO’s actions, the Arctic isn’t upstream of North America like the Pacific teleconnections are. The positive phase of the AO calls for a stronger than normal vortex in the Arctic (commonly referred to as the polar vortex), and a tendency for warmer weather to prevail across North America. The NAO has a positive and negative phase, like the Arctic Oscillation.

As we stand now, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is in a strong positive state. We’ll start with the teleconnections, with the Arctic Oscillation up first. Start shopping for next season’s wardrobe now, and buy only the pieces that will give you the most in the areas of fashion and function. We’ll start off with the long range thoughts, and then go into the major winter storm threat. However, as I was sifting through the data I wanted to include in this post, I came upon the realization that this data indicated a threat for a potentially major winter storm around the Thanksgiving timeframe. Using the aforementioned Typhoon Rule, it appears our second cold blast may impact the country around a September 24-28th timeframe. Using the guidelines set forth for this rule, we might expect some chilly weather in the Ohio Valley around the September 27th – October 1st period. Once again using this Typhoon Rule, we see the forecast on September 21st calling for continued deep troughing over Japan, now pushed deep into the country. An ensemble ‘spread’ indicates the degree of uncertainty among individual ensemble members on a particular area and its forecast.

This image shows the cold front creating a traditional squall line as a cooler air mass moves in over the area. 24 hours ago, we were expecting supercells to form out ahead of the cold front, with a weak squall line come with the cold front. This was not expected 24 hours ago. This ridge in the West results in cooler weather for the Plains and Midwest, as the CMC ensembles depicted, but that then leads to some slight ridging over the Ohio Valley. If we use this rule for the Ohio Valley, we might expect to see some cold weather, though I wouldn’t call it a ‘cold blast’. Extrapolating the forecast time period of September 17th, we might expect some cold weather around an October 4th – October 8th period, possibly for longer. The image used above is a forecast from the GFS ensembles, but the part I disagree with is for its forecast in the Northeast Pacific, not over Japan.