The following graphics illustrate the impact across the U.S. The first shows preciptation–a really modest decline over the NW and an increase over the southwest U.S. I’m looking at Thursday for the nation’s first chance at a severe weather outbreak this season. There is a slight chance of a storm forming for Sunday and Monday but I would not say that is likely at this point. First, there are a series of models–some statistical, some simulating the ocean/atmosphere system–that provide a forecast of what is happening over the tropical Pacific. First, the bottom line. The way this is projected by the Storm Prediction Center, along with GFS model forecasts, shows that either a squall line or several bowing clusters may be possible over the weekend in the Northeast. As the skew-t shows, we see the red temperature line not really curving to the left much from the surface to 700 millibars. Yes, this is the place the sun sign comes in, however it’s not about as critical as you may think – the moon sign is pretty much as vital in adoration.

When we see a stormy pattern in place over these regions, we call such a pattern a negative PNA, due to the below normal height anomalies in this region. El Nino years tend to produce Northwest winters that are warmer than normal, drier than normal, with less than normal mountain snowpack and a lower probability of lowland snow. In the spring, the La Nina produces a drier than normal Plains states and cooler than normal North Plains and Pacific Northwest. As the system deepens over the Upper Midwest, 850mb winds are progged to increase over the northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes as the atmosphere encourages organized severe weather to form. We look to see an upper level low emerge over the Central Plains by Thursday afternoon, taking on an apparent negative tilt by the time we reach Thursday evening. This image is valid at 1 AM Central local time for early Thursday morning, not Thursday night, which we have been talking about up to this point.

The issue, of course, is that this is looks like a very weak El Nino at this point and the impacts will be thus attenuated. The result: less signal and thus less forecasting skill. Single layer network use a step function to convert the net input, which is a continuously valued variable, to an output unit that is a binary or bipolar signal. To put it another way, meteorologists use the correlation of the El Nino and La Nina cycle (called ENSO-El Nino Southern Oscillation in the business) with midlatititude weather. Also, if Tito can put Chuck on his back, then I’ll take Tito. It’s not solely the presence of the moderate risk that makes this rare, it’s the fact that this moderate risk area was put out two days in advance. So hold off for a few days. The reason for that is because it looks like our capping inversion may hold through the night and kill off the risk. This happened in the Christmas storm of 2002 and as much as I would like to provide as much kindling as possible for that possibility it is not a good bet right now. It’s possible this does end up being a substantial severe weather event, but I’m not seeing too much activity for Wednesday night.

This would be a very dangerous situation, but it’s not being talked about as much. Same wimpy, marginal El Nino, and on the verge of being a La Nada year. Rather than being an unnecessary gimmick, many smart home devices will actually save you on your electricity bills, just as solar power does. Post-Tropical: This term is used after a hurricane or cyclone has lost some power and does not meet the wind speed requirements to be called a hurricane or typhoon. Back to Thursday night, lower level winds look to be roaring just southeast of the storm center, as this forecast 700mb wind speed chart shows. To observe the differences in the prediction speeds, look below for each speed applied to multiple prediction with time taken to predict and predictions given. I didn’t know it, but again, that was a prediction. As with any good tool, you need to know how to use it, as well as its limitations.