The only sounding available this morning near to this area is Mazatlan, which indicates a very moist and unstable air mass with low level-easterly winds. The nam (Fig. 3 – left) indicates a low center SW of Baja with strong southerly winds intruding far north into northwestern Arizona, i.e., a significant surge of moisture into the lower Colorado River Basin. The sounding (Fig. 1) shows a nice example of why the LI computed at 500 mb out here can be very deceptive! The airport had 0.72″, considerably exceeding yesterday’s model forecasts – including all the GEFS plumes. Here at house the total was 0.58″ – nice event to start December with amounts more than November’s one event by more than two. One thing I want to discuss is something I’m seeing on the GFS Ensembles two images above this sentence. I’ll illustrate this with the 850 mb 42-h forecasts from the nam and gfs.

The nam and gfs models forecast a strenthening cyclone at 850 mb down in this region; however, as per usual this summer, the models have very different details in their forecasts. However, the gfs (Fig. 4 – right) predicts a cyclone over the southern GoC that is totally separated from the circulation fields further north over northern Sonora and the U.S. Second, an infrared satellite image at 1230 UTC this morning (Fig. 2) shows a large area of storms and disturbed weather over and south of the southern end of the GoC. That means the lowest temperatures forecasted for each area throughout the 384 hours that the model forecasts for are put on this image. The models are in somewhat reasonable agreement this morning, which is good since our southeast Arizona weather event unfolds tomorrow into Friday morning. The weather in Arizona the nextcouple of days will, of course, depend upon which model’s forecast is closest to what happens in the real atmosphere. The question is what is this and will it affect our weather up here in Arizona?

Obviously, this is a great app if you’re allergic to certain pollens (remember that pollen forecasts are affected by both the season and the weather). It will be interesting to see how much snow eventually falls – assuming the progged thicknesses are close – and how cold it will get after the precip event ends. It’s looking more likely that we will see life-threatening cold weather end the month of January and kick off the month of February. Wednesday appears dry and somewhat seasonable but then very mild weather is indicated to precede a potentially more significant period of rain toward the end of the week/month. It seems I miscounted a bit, and the 57 day period from December 14th goes out to February 9th, rather than 7th. Therefore, this December 14th system looks to correlate with the February 9-14 storm threat. If you read my February 4-6 posts, you may recognize this storm, as I talked about how it would correlate with that storm system. This includes a variety of possibilities, including a Colorado Low storm, a Panhandle Hook storm, an Apps Runner storm, or even a Nor’easter. HAARP involves research into the use of low frequency radio waves to heat up the Earth’s ionosphere.

At this point, the signal has power proportional to echo radar reflectivity, and frequency equal to the Doppler shift. I’m not endorsing that 12z GFS run, but I am saying that the GFS Ensembles look suspicious to me right now. The image above shows the surface condition map on the left and 500mb map on the right from December 14, 2013. If w extrapolate that date out 57 days, we come to the February 9th mark. The image above shows minimum temperatures for the entire 12z GFS model run. I guess that I’d tend toward the gfs forecasts, given the two models’ performance during Hurricane John. We will not have to keep focus on the upcoming peak of hurricane season as we approach closer to Sept. Since composite materials are rust-free, governments don’t have to spend a lot of money to maintain bridges. I really like Snowflake Weather, but they are raising their barrier to entry by charging more initially and not really having a visual reason as to why they are different. To be quite honest, I do feel that a solution like this is possible.