With the occurrence of that warming event around December 7th – December 12th, maximized in the December 10th – December 14th period, we could then extrapolate the tropospheric effects to become evident two to two-and-a-half weeks later. All models agree on the evolution of a ridge of high pressure blossoming over the Arctic Circle, which will force the tropospheric polar vortex to be displaced to lower latitudes. Persistent high pressure over the northeast Pacific and the our region. Now, of course I am biased and recommend my own book: The Weather of the Pacific Northwest, available in local bookstores and online (Amazon, Barnes and Noble, etc). Right now, it is well below normal– roughly one-third of what we usually have this time of the year (see plot). Even rust can prevent the unit from doing its jobs well. In sum, while there are model discrepancies to be worked out, the MJO could very well be in a very supportive phase for this outlook of colder than normal weather at the end of the year. It just so happens that the GFS ensembles favor a Phase 8 or Phase 1 orientation of the MJO for this late December period, when models foresee colder than normal weather in the United States.

As such, while models like the GFS show high temperatures of -15 just west of Chicago, IL in this period (for example), we will see significant and dramatic change in such forecasts before we reach a more accurate projection. This will be able to give you a stunning hourglass figure, just like every woman wants! We will see the first week that a couple teams will be on a bye( Carolina and Washington). Level of Evidence: Prognostic Level I. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. In response, Canada vowed to increase its icebreaker fleet and build two new military facilities in the Artic and Denmark sent a team of scientists to seek evidence that the ridge in question was attached to its territory of Greenland. Currently, there is a forecasted positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), meaning that low pressure exists over Greenland. The GFS ensembles are shown above projecting the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) through the first few days of the new year.

The results of that warming event are shown above in a graph of the 30-millibar temperature reading since September 2017, with the average value shown on that gray line. In the above one month change of SST’s, we can see that warming has taken place across the northeast Pacific. In Nostradamus ‘ prediction, he stated that the people on earth will be able to see a fire that drag a trail of sparks. Well, a modest low pressure system will move south of us on Friday and Saturday morning (see surface map at 8 AM Saturday), but that will dump most of its precipitation over California (see 24-h total ending 5 PM Saturday). Already shown in the 3 hour precipitation forecasts is a linear precipitation forecast, meaning a squall line could be forecasted by the GFS. Most of the precipitation is expected to remain south of northern Vermont though that hasn’t been entirely decided. Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could certainly score a few inches and the Connecticut hills might end up doing the best.

Model guidance diverges in where the “strongest” piece of the polar vortex will end up, although with these longer-term forecasts such discrepancies are to be expected. As you can see, however, there is considerably higher uncertainty with this one due to magnified discrepancies between ensemble members, so again we will opt to monitor this period simply for the potential of cooler than normal weather. We first take a look at the geopotential height anomalies at the 500-millibar level, valid in the 8-10 day forecast period. The ECMWF model favors the strongest negative anomalies in western Europe, with lesser negative anomalies contained in southern Canada as that Arctic ridge becomes cut off from the mid-level flow. The GFS and CMC agree that the Arctic ridge will not be cut off from the mid-level flow, and will instead force the jet stream far north. By January 2nd, to kick off the new year, GFS ensembles again hint at a shot of colder than normal air for the eastern 2/3rds of the country.