The current risk is listed as a Slight Risk, which is not a significant threat outlook, but should be monitored. When analyzing sea surface temperatures across the world, it becomes immediately clear that there are many variables affecting the outlook, with the possibility of numerous wrenches being thrown into the forecast and making the outlook miss the mark. The best risk for severe weather is likely with that morning’s band of showers and storms, portrayed in Missouri and southern Iowa on this NAM model forecast. The latest FIM model is blowing up a storm system in the eastern Rockies on the 25th to as low as 982 millibars, or slightly lower. This is definitely the strongest system I have seen in a while. If you have say 100 equally likely forecasts, and half go for 2 feet of snow, then the probability of 2 feet of snow might be 50% (this is simplistic, but you get the idea).

For the third consecutive week, we expect moisture from the a storm well out over the Atlantic to get sucked back into the high country of interior New England and deposit some snow for MRG and other places. The details will have to be worked out at a later date, however. It should. Now, some details still have to be sorted out, but this does appear to match up with the Lezak Recurring Cycle time of about 45-50 days for each cycle. Now, let’s take a look to what the FIM is showing going into the 27th of May. If you need excitement, adrenaline and dopamine in your life and want to be successful with your betting then look for other ways to meet that need. Finally, we’ll take a look at the forecasted CWASP parameter for Wednesday evening. The GFS ensembles expect the pattern over the Arctic Circle to not vary too much by June 8th, with strong ridging still forecasted over Eurasia into the Arctic Circle, as well as a stout ridge now moving into Canada. For multiple sequences, Pfold should still be able to perform even better. A few posts ago I had expressed concern over a rain event and such concern still exists.

Severe weather reports do indicate that a tornado outbreak did occur (or a few cells with long tornadoes), and this could indeed happen again. As mentioned, the weather in this country varies, depending on location. The jet is also causing Pacific air to run much of the eastern part of the country over, thus the mild weather. Suddenly, Allen Lazard looks like an important part of the Packers’ passing game. A surging PNA index will bring some welcomed warm weather to areas like Montana which have been in the deep freeze for over a month and a period of colder weather to eastern North America, Vermont included. China has sought to redress that by sending abroad promising scientists, like Zhao, to learn from the world’s best, then bringing them home and furnishing them with industrial-scale resources. Derren could then reveal that his “predictions” were correct. First, the U.S. needs to enhance its ensemble forecast systems, the systems that facilitate the creation of probabilistic predictions. This has started to lead to troughing/a colder weather pattern in the Central US, and this will intensify in the next several days, with the 10 day forecast above showing this pattern continue.

Currently, the central Puget Sound region is roughly 2-3 inches ahead of normal November rainfall. The above image shows projected radar reflectivity at 7 AM Central Time on Tuesday. The only weather radar in western Washington is on Camano Island and its beam is blocked by the Olympics, so there is virtually no coverage over the coast and nearshore waters. The atmospheric pattern has changed in the last couple of days, with ridging starting to build over the Gulf of Alaska and western coast of North America. Snow arrives during your evening commute near and north of I-96. We can see a strong storm system digging deep into the Southwest, with another area of lower pressures located just north of Montana. The system in the Southwest does appear to be very intense, judging by the depression in the pressure lines running across the graph. Because there are some parts of the house that you might accidentally point the pressure washer. Do not torment your furry friend for staying inside the house throughout winter time.