Now, the warming of the westernmost Nino region 4 will likely have impacts on our severe weather season. This post will be of the more technical variety, so there will be a summary at the bottom for those who may not know as much weather jargon as some others do. Shown above is a two-panel graphic, depicting SST anomalies on a depth by longitude chart on top, as well as a mean equatorial temperature depth-longitude chart on the bottom. Take a look at the chart above. This phenomenon of warming-before-cooling has been observed well with the last few Kelvin Waves, as this chart shows. As the Kelvin Wave pushes east, we see sea level anomalies rise in conjunction with the anomalous warmth. The next question becomes, will this Kelvin Wave actually make it to Ecuador and Peru? There’s a Kelvin Wave afoot. Looking at the SST anomaly chart, it is very clear that there is a strong Kelvin Wave present under the surface.

However, we do pragmatically accept that there will be times when it is necessary to maintain a branch off the main development path (Fig. 3) with minor modifications that optimize performance in a given application. Basically, kundali matching is completed by basing compatibility on a points system wherever there are 36 points in total. The ECMWF and GFS both agree that a major Canadian high pressure system will slide down into the Plains in the day or so before this potential storm system. It would be focused in on the Plains and run every few hours. By the time we get to the evening of March 12th, about 24 hours later from the image we just discussed above, we see a lot has changed. It is quite unusual to get major rainfall events in our region during September, but a very wet pattern looks probable over the region this weekend and early next week.

This post will address my thoughts on the ENSO situation, the potential for East Coast snow events in the near-future, some additional spring thoughts, and more information on the upcoming severe weather season. Whilst discussing value, we touched on creating our own prediction model to allow you to generate your own probabilities and odds for certain sporting events. Model guidance has been simulating this rise to a moderate El Nino by fall very well. Starting Friday morning, a series of moderate to heavy rainy periods will occur over our region. Looking over all of the regions, we see that most of them are in a strong cooling period, actually hitting La Nina criteria of -0.5 degrees C anomaly or below. The El Nino phenomenon is characterized by above normal sea surface temperatures, and the La Nina is shown by below normal sea surface temperatures. These few days between the end of October and the start of November also included slightly above normal stratospheric temperatures diving south from Canada, with below normal temperatures observed in the Pacific Northwest.

In this reanalysis, we see strong ridging over the west coast of North America, producing a northwest flow situation into the East Coast, where a lobe of the polar vortex sat to the north in Canada. Olympics, coastal mountains, and north Cascades (and the Coast Mountains of BC) end up with 5-10 inches. The warmth and humidity from the tropics can periodically splash northward into the lower Mississippi Valley and near the Southeast coast as low-pressure systems cross the country. I circled an area where a finger of warmth has propagated to the surface, and that is what’s causing the sudden warmth. Above, we see the latest data from each monitoring region of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here the test data is used to estimate the accuracy of classification rules. The accuracy of chemosensitivity prediction was considerably better than would be expected by chance. The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes.