There is a proven correlation between Siberian snow cover in October and subsequent above or below normal temperatures in the following winter over North America. The image above shows minimum temperatures for the entire 12z GFS model run. Purely for ‘eye candy’, here’s the latest GFS projection of a storm in the East US on January 6th. This graphic isn’t a forecast you should count on to verify. It’s looking more likely that we will see life-threatening cold weather end the month of January and kick off the month of February. Things are looking up for a cool start to winter. Looking at the layout on the forecast image, we see the highest shearing extending from central Texas into Missouri and even into Iowa. It is true that we create jobs at the top of the skill ladder even as automation destroys them at the bottom, but can this continue on indefinitely? We can identify the placement of this event by the oranges and reds pushing north in that body of water.

Forecasted precipitable water values for 1pm central, Sunday. This post will address the Saturday and Sunday threats, with a forthcoming post addressing the Monday and Tuesday threats. I’m not sold on the idea that an extremely meridional (wavy) flow just upstream will result in zonal (west-to-east, flat) flow here in the US. But then if we look at the United States, we see just regular west-to-east flow. I will be tracking Siberia through October to see what else we can expect for this winter. The question is what is this and will it affect our weather up here in Arizona? The question is, can it last? A stationary front is seen draped across the Midwest, a boundary which has been the focus for thunderstorm development over the last couple of days already. A multi-day severe weather event that began at the end of this last workweek will continue through the weekend and into the start of next workweek. Second, an infrared satellite image at 1230 UTC this morning (Fig. 2) shows a large area of storms and disturbed weather over and south of the southern end of the GoC.

But after a dry period through Tuesday, a series of weather system will move in, generally just to the south of us. An importer who buys goods priced in foreign currency has the risk that the foreign currency will appreciate causing the local currency cost to be greater than expected and so reducing profit. I was glad I’d stopped and the family who ran the place gave me a warm welcome. It seems plausible that, with the movement of the dryline eastward, there will be more than enough forcing to ignite thunderstorms, particularly in the absence of a substantial cap. Additional severe weather is possible north of the Enhanced Risk area, although with a lower reservoir of instability and relatively weaker forcing for storms, the risk is understandably downgraded to Slight for areas in the Plains and Midwest. Model guidance has this dryline diffusing somewhat during the evening hours over central Texas, which may diminish some of the impetus for severe storms, but with the main event already ongoing this does not seem to be a significant concern. That means the lowest temperatures forecasted for each area throughout the 384 hours that the model forecasts for are put on this image.

It has been observed that this snowpack correlates with the Arctic Oscillation, or AO, to make these temperatures fluctuate. Such a sudden increase in snowpack suggests a cold weather is on the way for the winter. The presence of such a snow pack suggests a quick and cold start to winter may be on the way. The past two weeks have seen a rapid build of snow cover over Siberia and nearby regions of Russia. Siberia has developed a healthy snow pack in the past two weeks, with snow now covering much of northeastern Russia. We can see much of the nation is projected to dip below 0 degrees Fahrenheit at some point during the next 16 days, with the northern Plains trying to dip below -40 degrees. Antonio Guterres said on Monday, warning a summit in Madrid that governments risked sleepwalking past a point of no return. Every year there is a story in the news of some person burning down their home or suffocating themselves to death while working on frozen pipes.