There are hints that the push of more milder air could be the catalyst for a period of light snow Saturday but that remains to be seen. For now it seems like a preferred location for a jet stream ridge which is not entirely ideal but again, we’ve seen worse patterns, especially around the holidays. Though I wouldn’t describe it as terrible, it certainly doesn’t look particularly ideal. Just on a very preliminary look at the winter storm, and the environment surrounding it, I would not be surprised to see this storm stay in the Plains and Midwest through the next couple of LRC cycles through this winter. I would take the NAM image, but Dr. Greg Forbes from The Weather Channel said that his specialized tornado forecast was ‘moderate to high’ a couple days ago. Have students make a prediction about how many grains of rice there will be at the end of 30 days.

The last two days have been extremely suppressed and very dry in southern Arizona, with dewpoints yesterday falling into the upper 30s. This was the third dry-down of the summer that came in on easterly to southeasterly winds. Please realize, and I emphasize this, the storm track is a track that I have been the LEAST sure of in all my days of forecasting. The Dodgers have been here before. The pictures that you see here are a few of the better shots I took on that 3-mile walk that day. Here in Washington State, I hope our Senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, will intervene. As the week progresses, there are continued signs that the ridge in the jet stream responsible for the milder weather will weaken and allow colder air to sink southward into interior New England. The question relates to what actual weather will accompany this push of colder weather on the 26th and 27th of the month. It would be wise to leave some leg-room for changes as we get closer to the weekend but the prevailing weather pattern is quite mild which encourages these types of storm tracks.

Changes in the jet stream are expected to occur on time and a block is expected to form close to Greenland by early next week. The precipitation forecast for the same time period as above shows pretty low amounts of precipitation across the Northeast as the system slides to the east. Now imagine that same ECMWF model, but now there’s 52 of them, combined into one overall forecast. The pattern for Christmas week now looks pretty well-defined. Quite possibly but the pattern does not support any notion of a big storm. These first two images are showing the textbook example of a positive Pacific-North American pattern. Readings are likely to reach 60 even at the base of MRG (1700 feet or so) and well into the 60’s across the low lying valleys. The week is expected to finish on the dry but cold side with temperatures below zero Thursday and Friday morning in many places while afternoon readings are only in the single numbers Thursday and 15 on Friday.

This will put an end to the excessive temperatures across eastern North American generally but readings will only slowly drop in Vermont. The Mayan Calendar So will the world end in 2012? For much of Monday night into Tuesday, the aforementioned front will remain situated in close enough proximity (roughly the Canadian border) to keep the showery weather and clouds close. The event will be short-lived, but a few good bursts of snow should provide 1-4 inches of wind driven snow to the high country around the MRV and possibly a bit more from Stowe northward to the Canadian border. A cold front will put an end to the spring extravaganza Wednesday night and will bring a few showers to the region as it does so, though heavy rain is not expected. The disturbance will also bring snow showers and squalls to the northern Vermont high country just as the Wednesday ski day is winding down.

December will not go down as a particularly arctic month but the coldest weather of the month will nonetheless make its appearance, brought in by a potent jet impulse Wednesday evening. Wednesday appears downright tropical. Friday appears quite sunny for much of the day with temperatures approaching or crossing the freezing mark but clouds in advance of the next storm system may make an appearance at some point before evening. There is a new method for the GFS, but that is much less in terms of threat than the NAM as well. All things considered, Vermont ski country managed to do decently well this holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain well above average and in many areas, above freezing Thursday but will finally cool into the 20’s Thursday night thanks to a clear sky and calm winds. There has been a northward surge of low-level moisture into southwest and south-central Arizona during the late night and early morning hours. There was no way I could finish Twilight and not have the next of the Saga, New Moon, to start reading right absent. This morning a number of things have changed. However, given that this convective activity has already begun in a widespread fashion, there is definitely concern regarding the degree of instability in the wake of the morning storms.