We are still expecting a dose of snow from a “fun of the mill” weather system that should spread the powdery stuff into Vermont early Tuesday. In the end we should see 3-6 inches from this period of snow which should end Tuesday evening. Three of the GFS ensemble members continue to be distinctly different, forecasting a deep, closed low holding to the west along and off the coast of northwest Mexico – see above. Right now snow growth is above normal. More snow growth tends to lead to a colder winter based on its impact on the upper air pattern. Less extreme, but no less important, reliable probabilistic forecasts about the potential for warmer, colder, wetter, or drier conditions at a few weeks lead are valuable for routine planning and resource management. Be sure all your tissues and muscles are healed so your body can safely carry your new child to term. Because of where the lake is located in conjunction with prevailing weather patterns, things can get very rough very quickly. And it reveals a problem with our best weather forecasting models. Of course, no one can control the weather and, though weather forecasting has come a long way over the last 50 years, even the experts, with all the great weather instruments and radar, can be wrong.

From a certain point of view I suppose that is so, but from my point of view, weather and forecasting is relative. Over the next week, almost everything on the weather map looks farther south. Firstly, the observational base has improved substantially over the last few decades, especially for the oceans, and so the skill of the forecasts may also improve just because of better-defined initial conditions. For the weather event coming at the end of the work week, I’ll again concentrate on the 500 mb forecasts from the global models. The spread of the forecasts is greatest from west of Baja northeastward across the Central Plains. The height differences between the two GFS members shown here is as great as 250 to 300 m west of Baja. With strong westerly (form the west) winds aloft, much of the Puget Sound lowlands were in the Olympic rainshadow, with some locations only getting about a tenth of an inch.

A strong warm followed by an atmospheric river with lots of moisture and strong winds. This storm marks a division between very cold arctic air and eastward advancing and milder pacific air. Cold weather fueled by the reemergence of a positive PNA and a loosened jet in the Pacific will likely dominate the back 6 days of February. The big changes will come this weekend as a cold front pushes into our area due to a approaching trough in the jet stream. Models have been hinting, several times actually, at a storm for the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd. Although the warm ridge gets beaten back late Friday it will not disappear entirely. A storm system will again be guided up the slope of this upper ridge somewhere in the vicinity of New England. As stated in the parameters printed just below the forecast graphic, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area nearly identical to what I outlined above. Below is a plot of the temperatures (red lines) and wind above Seattle Tacoma Airport. Thursday will dry and above freezing temperatures in the afternoon should finally remind us that March is just around the corner.

Figure 26, shown above, depicts the correlation between surface temperatures and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the December-January-February window. Temperatures could briefly surge from the 30’s Thursday night, all the way to 50 Friday but the mild intrusion will actually be short lived and colder weather will begin displacing this warmth by Friday evening. During the last day or two of February into very early March there are some more signs of splitting in the flow and some resulting active weather. High-tech drill press machines are more complex to use but offer better functionality. Summary: Software programs that conduct genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction and selection need to use methodologies that maximize statistical power, provide high prediction accuracy and run in a computationally efficient manner. The second test considers the largest available set of 1.5 million proteins including sequences from across the tree of life, providing a large-scale assessment of the HMM-based prediction in order to determine our accuracy and coverage statistics. Cook. 2014. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2. Data set. Convenience of set-up and Wi-Fi transmitting range are going to be essential factors if you can’t set it up, and you can’t get the information from your house, it will be more complicated to use.