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Bottom image is the Phoenix Rainfall Index for 5 October. The top image shows the SPC plot of severe storm reports for 5 October. 1994 – Harold Camping predicted the rapture would come in September or October of this year. I would expect this sort of environment to come back in the closing days of March and opening days of April in accordance with the LRC. Precipitation forecasts from the European model show a very active event over the purple outlined area for April 16th, but sounding forecasts from the GFS are much less enthusiastic. Very active storm day yesterday and still continuing this morning; probably a bigger day than occurred anytime during the summer. Waiting out a storm in a pitch black room is much more frightening, especially for children. Yesterday’s PRI for a single day indicates that about 50% as much rainfall occurred yesterday as fell during the entire period from June 15th through September 30th for the greater Phoenix area!

The current GOES PW image (not shown) indicates the presence of this very dry air in northern Sonora, so the models appear to be on track. This morning’s Tucson sounding (top) remains moist and very unstable in low-levels, with dry air above 600 mb. Perhaps this is not surprising given the apparent moderate-level outbreak in south-central Arizona yesterday and this morning’s tornado swarm (as per NPR) near Flagstaff. Intense thunderstorms continued this early morning in north-central Arizona with reports of tornadoes near the Flagstaff NWS Office which is actually located west of Flagstaff at Belmont, Arizona. First a focus on southeast Arizona – next post will deal with the storms in the Phoenix area and this morning’s tornado just north of the Flagstaff NWS Office. Thus, at first glance there would appear to at least some threat of more storms today. The shrine along with adjoining areas witnessed first snowfall of the season on Thursday and Friday, forcing suspension of the helicopter and ropeway service. Bottom image is the RAP regional radar composite at 2000 UTC this afternoon – this is as active as it ever was across southeast Arizona today – totally suppressed wrt deep convection. This dual-placement of tropical convection is referred to as a “Wave 2” pattern, due to the two waves of active convection.

John reported that power was out for several hoours over there due to downed power poles – so another severe report in the Tucson area. U.S. yesterday–some over the southeast U.S. Key Deficiencies in U.S. The key is to spend before the market shows a movement. Top image shows the SPC diagnostic plot of the special 18 UTC sounding taken at Tucson. The middle image shows an uncredited photo from the web of one of the thunderstorms moving across portions of Phoenix. At 500 mb (middle) temperatures remain very cool over Arizona at -12 to -16C. Photos above are from just after 5 pm to about 6:20 pm (top to bottom) – Kitt Peak looking south (top); Catalinas from Campus (middle); and partial but double rainbow from house (bottom). The rooftop anemometer at ATMO on campus recorded a gust of 85 mph with these storms and there was minor wind damage reported in Marana to the northwest.

Heaviest storms occurred with a strong, east-west arc of storms that moved rapidly northward across the Tucson metro area around 7 pm. The bottom photo is from John Diebold and was taken last evening as the intense arc of storms moved northward. The model forecasts rapidly advect drier air northward from Sonora, shifting the storm threat to the north. However, model forecasts indicate little activity in southern Arizona today. Winter doesn’t officially begin until Saturday, but it’ll feel like it’s in full swing today! Nothing prepares you for a great and productive day than having a full and restive eight hours of sleep the night before. While speeding up gives you are a great sense of freedom, it is also important to have an efficient brake system that will allow you to stop any time you need. Have been away all afternoon and have just taken a look at the afternoon data.

CAPE. However, the NAM forecasts good southerly flow from Sonora by afternoon and 500 mb temperatures are very cool at -12 to -15C. More recently the operational provision of seasonal forecasts providing probabilistic predictions of future seasonal climate anomalies has become established. Opt for a flexible building that can be modified, and is climate controlled to make sure that it will last. It’s that negative energy will intensify and accelerate with unprecedented intensity and speed. As I sit here, writing what will be the final post on The Weather Centre blog, I’m experiencing a wide range of emotions. Ergo, this upcoming severe weather potential could echo the Christmas Day event (not specifically in strength, but in overall pattern). We loved them. They usually didn’t last the day when Mom made them. Python has many features such as its flexibility, scripting, an easy index using indentation and many more. Activities like traveling, trekking or hiking revive the dead cells of our body; it is more like an energy booster.