Vol 21, No 6

ECMWF. And during the January western WA snowstorm, it was the ECMWF model that first indicated the correct solution. The ECMWF is running models with substantially higher resolution than ours because they have more resources available for NWP. Had you known what was going to happen in 2000, you would have avoided a large decrease in your 401ks. They are really just using complex models to forecast the market’s movements. Shouldn’t they be using it to bet on major tournaments and rake in millions of dollars? We are talking about millions or tens of millions of dollars at most to have the hardware we need. Can you imagine how many millions of dollars are being spent by U.S. If birds are flying south, you can figure that wintry weather is on the way. Right now it does not look like a treat, but the tropics will remain active through the end of October and my concern is one of these developing storms can effect someone from the Gulf states to the east coast.

Here is a plot from a paper by Garrett Wedam, Lynn McMurdie and myself comparing various models at 24, 48, and 72 hr for sea level pressure along the West Coast. The Tuolumne River running through this region provides opportunities for every level of white-water rafting. We are an online service that provides precise football predictions and football betting tips to its users. But the cost of the inferior NWS forecasts are far greater than that, because many users cannot afford the ECMWF grids and the NWS uses their global predictions to drive the higher-resolution regional models–which are NOT duplicated by the Europeans. For practical reasons only approximate solutions to this equation are possible in general. Snow is also possible Wednesday in the Southern High Plains and Thursday in North Central US. NAO signal we discussed earlier is now in play, as we see the aforementioned West US ridge ‘bleeding east’ into the Plains. Not only because these are fun to play, but also because they offer easy cash in the most cost-effective manner.

The presets: -Presets are also important as they allow you to cook some of the common items by simply pressing a button. Based on temperature forecasts from American model and European ensemble system, temperatures surpassing 60 would be common in and south of the Great Lakes. This has been an extraordinarily ineffective and wasteful system, with the NOAA research teams doing work that often has a marginal benefit for the NWS. Thus, the head of the NWS and his leadership team do not have authority over folks doing research in support of his mission. 3. The NWS numerical weather prediction effort has been isolated and has not taken advantage of the research community. 4. The NWS approach to weather related research has been ineffective and divided. This note is getting long, so I will wait to talk about the other problems in the NWS weather modeling efforts, such as our very poor ensemble (probabilistic) prediction systems.

Let me note that the above is about the modeling aspects of the NWS, NOT the many people in the local forecast offices. If you read the NWS forecast discussion, which is available online, you will frequently read how they often depend not on the U.S. One way to describe this, is that the ECWMF model is not only better at the short range, but has about one day of additional predictability: their 8 day forecast is about as skillful as our 7 day forecast. Let’s not forget in the blizzard of 1888 it was in the 60’s in NYC the day of the storm! The Storm Prediction Center has outlined three areas of interest in its long range severe weather outlook. All of U.S. NWP is dragged down by these second-rate forecasts and the costs for the nation has to be huge, since so much of our economy is weather sensitive. However, if no suitable homologue exists sequence-based methods will obviously do much worse than structure-based methods.

This is a key component as it will introduce polar air into the country over this next week. During the last two decades there has been a considerable development in the field of extended-range forecasting, that is, forecasts for up to a week in advance. There is also a bluish-green band circling the equator which may be fresh nitrogen frost deposits. ECMWF global forecasts. And there are some very good people at NCEP that have lacked the resources required and suitable organization necessary to push forward effectively. There are people who want to achieve things easily, faster and to put blame on planets for their failures. Another way to look at it is that with the current upward trend in skill they are 5-7 years ahead of the U.S. Much of the current activity in the area of intelligent vehicle-highway systems (IVHSs) focuses on one simple objective: to collect more data. I was surprised how much I like them.