What Is Dew Point?

This image shows an analysis (not a forecast) of the 500mb height anomalies over the Pacific, as of 6 PM Central Time last night. Reminder: My Preliminary 2013-2014 Winter Forecast comes out Saturday, June 15 at 12:00 PM Central Time. In the forecast image above, we see strong low pressure building over the Arctic to allow for a strengthening polar vortex. This abundant high pressure formation is what is supposed to happen with strong low pressure in the Arctic. This condensation can lead to the formation of fog or clouds. Football and Basketball are constantly adjusting their rules, schedules, playoffs, conferences, leagues, and anything else they can think of to keep their sport fresh help make it more exciting. These maps show surface sustained wind speed (gusts are higher) and wind direction (little barbs). Let’s now go over the forecasted surface map for Wednesday morning, about 12 hours in advance of storm activity.

Glancing over the top image, it looks like the storm track is expected to shift north into the Plains in coming days, good news for snow fans in that area for when the LRC repeats later on this year. The long range American ensembles show 500 millibar height anomalies over the next sixteen days from left to right, top to bottom. Figure 28 shows a swath of well-above-normal SST anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific as a whole, an interesting development should it persist into the winter. However, high pressure building south of Greenland and in the Northeast Pacific will coerce the low pressure further south and allow cold air to make itself available in all the areas shown in blue. I am talking about this summer’s warm weather in the Pacific Northwest. Weather observations on the ground showed the transition to rapidly increased winds from the west and northwest. The UW Climate Impacts Group has published a report outlying their prediction of the future Northwest climate.

For reasons that I won’t go into, many of my climate colleagues believe it it too aggressive and the RCP 4.5 (blue line) will prove closer to what will happen. Shown above are two long range forecast models, predicting 200mb heights for the month of December 2013. Areas of blue depict general lower heights and thus low pressure areas, while reds indicate high pressure systems. Light winds (blue colors) generally and over the accident site. Between 12 and 3 PM the winds surged from very light (less than 5 mph) to over 20 mph, as the winds shifted to just west of north. Strong, negatively-tilted short-wave trough digging into north Texas (12 UTC analysis above) was main weather maker for the day. The rating of this tornado is not yet known, but the NWS will survey the damage and assign a rating within the next day or so. Commercial farmers are short-range profit oriented in that they show little regard for the long term damage they are doing to the land, the produce and the people who ingest their produce.

Long range weather models are predicting a very favorable winter for those snow lovers and plowers who have been in a big deficit in the past two years. Another interesting fact is that Venus has been proven to have lightening. It could have hit Nord Stream 2’s financial investors, all major European energy companies: Engie SA, Uniper SE, OMV AG, Wintershall Dea GmbH and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Push the needle through the middle of the peanut shell and out of the other side, it’s a bit like threading beads. I agree with this idea, and it does look like the first 10 or so days of February will be characterized by an up-and-down weather pattern. By the time we reach February 5-7, it appears we will see another shot of Arctic air. Again, usually, warm air would be favored as the cold air would be kept up north in the presence of such strong low pressure over the Arctic. Yes, I know the ensembles were already listed in the North Camp, this is just for you all to see what it says. We can see the polar vortex pushing south towards the US/Canada border, but by the time May rolls around in the bottom row of forecast images, we see abundant high pressure across the nation.

First, the 18-h forecast for 11 AM Wednesday. Pictured above is the 500 millibar height anomalies from forecast Day 6 to Day 10. Cold colors show low pressure anomalies, while warm colors portray high pressure. We can see the deep negative height anomalies over the Bering Sea, and the identifier of the Bering Sea Rule, Joe Renken, sees this as a signal that the February 7-12 period will see significant cold weather. The 3 stars may mean that you are in the middle of positive and negative energy. It may seem counter-intuitive since insulators are believed only to hold warm air in the house. Spring continues to do its magic and will be pulling a vanishing act until the beginning of May. Rudi Giuliani will one day run for president. Here are the winds above Vancouver Airpot that day (time in UTC increasing to the left. In storms you are often hit by two rouge waves fairly close together and a third wave comes from a slightly different angle; usaually when a vessel is in a vulnerable position.