Worth It Or Not?

That doesn’t mean I totally discount it, because who am I to make a tornado predictor? Those days were agony for anyone who experienced that kind of disaster. September 1922 – At Chalon-sur-Saone, little toads fell for 2 days. September 1973 – Tens of thousands of small toads fell from the sky in a freak storm onto the southern French village of Brignoles. January 1973 – A shower of tiny frogs about the size of nickels fell from the sky during a thunderstorm. People witnessed hundreds of little frogs bouncing off umbrellas. All batrachians, however, can subsist for a long time without food, and grow little during this fast; they seek shelter under damp wood, stones, or other cover; they practically aestivate, a summer slumber similar to hibernation. Here four tips for surviving summer without your student loan. Here is a copy of the weather record of July 1887 for Klamath Falls, Oregon.

Could the thunderstorm in Klamath Falls have unleashed the toads? Thus, given weak correlations and the expectation of a weakly-positive QBO, I don’t believe the QBO will have a material effect on precipitation either. That said, it can be expected at least a local tornado outbreak will occur. We’ll need to see how model uncertainty in the Bering Sea resolves itself before we can be sure the West will get at least a bit of relief. Other model guidance confirms this idea of a second body of low pressure forming south of Japan and skirting the nation to the east before phasing with the very strong storm in the Sea of Japan. However, the strong warming trend over east Canada tells me that the positive AMO should stick around through the winter months. We see strong ridging high pressure in the West Coast of North America, but another swath of high pressure also looks to exist in southern Canada.

In this image, also valid for the evening of December 23rd, we see a few factors at work here. The implications here could be huge. It is a low pressure system that sits in the Gulf of Alaska and typically makes for warmer weather over the US. The image above shows the forecasted 500mb vorticity values on the morning of December 16th, valid over the West Pacific. It is possible the ridge in the Southeast is suppressed if we can get high pressure over Greenland to get a negative North Atlantic Oscillation going, though model guidance everywhere is having trouble with that aspect of the forecast. Can you imagine Frognado? We can observe the negative tilt by the height contours seeming to “dig” in a southeast-ward direction. Take a look at this image, forecasting 500mb geopotential height values in colored shadings, as well as mean sea level pressure (MSLP) values in the contoured lines.

In this image, valid just six hours prior to the time period in the first image we analyzed, we see a strong storm system in the Sea of Japan, correlated to the strong upper level low. This image from the GFS ensembles shows what I’m talking about. Long range ensemble model guidance for the evening of December 23rd shows a relatively favorable pattern for a storm. A corresponding state-dependent correction would then be made every time step of the model integration to retard growth in the component of the error generated by the model deficiencies. After all, it is “the will of the Lord” from Ephesians 5.17. As the Spirit fills and uses your life He will give you sensitivity to both truth and error in your life. We will use twitter more and use complex and unreliable “favorability index” less (I should say not at all). Use these unique and amazingly insightful applicant evaluation methods.

If that really is another low pressure system, then we have a very interesting scenario on our hands for Christmas. There have been other suggestions of toads being sucked up by tornadoes and scattered around the countryside. There is a lot of natural beauty that can not be reached by cars or trucks. In fact, reports of precipitating frogs can be traced back to classical times. June 1892 – A fall of little frogs near Birmingham, they were not like the local ones but were described as almost white. Out of it, as people watched, fell the numerous little toads. It turns out that showers of toads may be rare, but not unheard of, as documented by an article in the Guardian. A big reason for this may be that winter wear is generally seen as practical. A winter storm may be in the cards for December 22-26th, likely impacting Christmas travel plans. Density interacted with weather variables to affect neonatal survival; spring and winter temperatures had a positive effect on neonatal survival only when population density was high.