Immediately offshore of these regions, we see above normal SSTA values. Looking back at the global SSTA chart above, we see rather variable sea surface temperatures in the waters in northeast Canada and by Greenland. AMO is defined by above normal sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean, and a negative AMO sees the Arctic Ocean in cooler than normal temperatures. Taking a glance across the Arctic Circle, we find positive height anomalies stretching from Greenland to the Bering Sea. In the negative PDO, we find above normal SST anomalies stretching from east Asia across much of the northern Pacific and into the Northeast Pacific. Right off the bat we see strong positive SST anomalies across the Pacific. We now take a broader look at the sea surface temperatures around the globe to get a feel for other atmospheric patterns that rely on these sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA’s) to work.

The ENSO phenomenon involves anomalous sea surface temperatures across these four regions on the chart above. This chart shows sea surface temperatures for the four regions included in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. PDO phase, we see below normal sea surface temperatures extending from northeast Asia across the North Pacific and to the waters well offshore Western Canada and southern Alaska. Below normal SST values are found just offshore the western coast of North America. SST anomalies across the Northern Pacific and extending into the Bering Sea, chances of persistent high pressure in this area would drastically rise if the current water temperature pattern does not significantly change by the time winter comes. SST anomalies leads to high pressure formation, it could happen that we see periods of anomalously warm weather along the Eastern Seaboard that could then maximize cold weather in the Plains. In the negative NAO, high pressure is stationed over the land mass in a move that permits cold air and Nor’easter’s to affect the Eastern US. For example, positive SSTA’s lead to higher pressure, while negative SSTA’s lead to lower pressure. This bodes well for high pressure placement in the Bering Sea and general North Pacific, something I will discuss further in my analog package discussion below.

LIFT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. The difference between west and east based is in the name: If you have something that’s west-based, it means the temperature anomalies of an El Nino or La Nina are on the western side of the ENSO monitoring area. This animation shows temperature composites for west and east-based La Ninas and El Nino’s. Key West typically receives an average of 3.48 inches of precipitation during the month. So the weighted average can be calculated by using the formula.

The years I took into account were 1962-1963 and 2008-2009. I did drop my previous analog year of 1951-1952 due to an uneasiness I had using it. I took into account many factors, including the PDO, ENSO, AMO, and sunspot numbers, with many others also adding to the mix. In the positive PDO, the Southeast tends to experience above normal precipitation, while the southern Ohio Valley will see slightly drier than normal conditions. This forecast will examine the indices most likely to play a significant role in the coming winter, as well as several hints and clues we can pick up from the weather we experienced this past summer. 2 summer and winter consequences, as well as forecasts in the past that indicated we were supposed to be well into an El Nino by now, I’m pretty skeptical on the idea of an El Nino. Summer months are warmer than spring and temperatures can often shoot up to 30 degrees. AMO is weakening (which it has been over this past spring), it does not bode well for the chances of a negative NAO this winter.

See the other winter forecasts for cities across the country, the AO, NAO and even Canada and Europe! It may try to start growing again during periods of warmer temperatures, but even at those times it will be limited. We will begin with an analysis of one of the main drivers of the seasonal climate, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, if one was to classify the ENSO situation, we would be in an east-based La Nina, which would support a cooler than normal Northern US. Right now, I believe we will see a Neutral ENSO winter, though if water temperatures stay cold enough we could see a weak La Nina. Archaeologists studying the Mayan calendars say that the Mayans believed that this event will be horrific. Year so it will be virtually divided into two. The length of each cycle varies each year, and NO PATTERN IS THE SAME from year to year. These below normal temperature anomalies were mainly produced by a very cold winter of 1962-1963, which is the analog year I am favoring out of the two. Here’s the basis of why I’m issuing my winter forecast so early: my winter analog package. If the analog package verifies this winter, it is very possible the polar vortex may shift into North America.